The UK's role in shaping a post-Assad Syria

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The shock fall of the Assad regime is one of the greatest political upheavals to affect Syria and the Levant in recent decades.

• Syria remains strategically significant to both Middle Eastern and international actors for regional stability, especially regarding terrorism, cross-border crime, and global energy security. 

• How the UK responds in the coming months will be critical to shaping regional dynamics and safeguarding British interests.

This paper advocates that the UK government adopt a pragmatic security-focused strategy in Syria, prioritising:

Counterterrorism Efforts: working with allies, partners, and the new Syrian Transitional Government (STG) to prevent a Da’esh resurgence.

Countering Russian and Iranian Influence: To safeguard UK and NATO strategic interests.

Stabilising Regional Tensions: In particular, encouraging the cessation of hostilities between Turkey and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the negotiations between the STG and SDF.

Coordination with Allies: Ensuring that all actions are taken in concert with the US, Europe, and regional partners to ensure a combined, coordinated approach to Syria. 

This includes:

• Convince the Transitional Government to refuse Access, Basing, and Overflight (ABO) to the Russian Federation.

• Support the Damascus-SDF Agreement While Ensuring Kurdish Rights.

• Engage Turkey to Prevent Escalation and Promote Dialogue.

• Condition UK Governance Support in Northwest Syria on Legal Compliance and HTS Reform.

• Coordinate with partners to stabilise North-eastern Syria and continue the operation of detainment centres and refugee camps.

• Counter Adversary Disinformation.