Middle power moves: foreign policy lessons for the UK and Germany
At Davos in January 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney urged middle powers to stand up and adapt their approach to an international order which is unravelling. A new paper from the New Diplomacy Project think tank, published in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, assesses the particular opportunities for the UK and Germany to meet this moment, and considers the lessons both countries can learn from other middle powers.
International relations in 2025 have taken a sharp turn away from multilateral cooperation within the framework of a rules-based international system. Instead, bilateral deal-making, transactionalism, and power politics have returned to the fore, with the United States under President Donald Trump leading this shift. Norms and principles which have guided international cooperation since the end of the Second World War are being challenged or altogether discarded, and the institutions responsible for resolving conflicts and delivering vital humanitarian assistance are under severe strain.
Meanwhile, potentially existential transformations from climate change to the rise of new technologies require global coordination and attention. In a world which is increasingly fragmenting, can likeminded middle powers such as the UK and Germany find a way to advance their interests and priorities, while also bolstering the weakened international system? This paper explores examples of middle power agency (within Europe and beyond), and suggests ways in which the UK and Germany can work together with other middle powers to navigate the uncertainty.
The paper recommends that the UK and Germany adopt the following approach:
Recognise their developed middle power status and act accordingly, moving beyond short‑term crisis management to define their expected roles in the evolving international order and pursue sustained pathways toward them.
Prioritise patient and pragmatic engagement with non-likeminded states while upholding core principles; building influence through presence and practical cooperation in the national interest rather than asserting moral distance.
Adopt functional, action-oriented and consistent diplomacy across regions and policy issues. Cooperate selectively on climate, trade, technology without assuming every partnership must be accompanied by a shared worldview.
Ground foreign policy in a coherent economic strategy, investing in diplomatic capabilities that enable industrial cooperation and trade ties, and bolster economic security as the underpinnings of international influence.
Diversify institutional engagement, avoiding over‑dependence on traditional western forums. Pursue smaller ‘issue coalitions’ built around concrete outcomes. Of the traditional forums, decide what can be preserved, and focus on achieving that.
Restore investment in diplomatic networks, cultural institutions and other sources of soft power to renew long‑term relationships, especially with regions that might feel neglected by recent cuts to humanitarian aid.
Rebuild reputation as a dependable partner by honouring our commitments on climate finance, humanitarian aid, and defence.
Use convening capacity to lead on practical initiatives such as crisis response, while also effectively recognising the value of international organisations as power multipliers in the pursuit of national interests.
Commenting on the paper in its foreword, Phil Brickell MP and Sebastian Roloff MdB said:
"By embracing the lessons outlined in this paper, the UK and Germany will have an opportunity to play a key role in a global silent majority which, together, can begin the work of refashioning an international order in which states can pursue their interests peacefully in partnership with others."
The paper also identifies particular opportunities for middle power leadership by the UK and Germany in the coming months, including through the coalition of the willing on Ukraine, continued engagement on the western Balkans, cooperating on AI governance and European AI capabilities, and developing an alternative development offer to those of China and the United States to support engagement with less economically developed countries.
About the authors
Ben Horton is co-chair of the New Diplomacy Project.
Reg Pula serves on the executive committee of the New Diplomacy Project. He is also head of defence and security at Rud Pedersen UK, and executive director of Labour Friends of Kosovo and the Western Balkans.
Cover image courtesy of Flickr image by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street